吉川 元（特任教授）
＊この記事は『Hiroshima Research News』59号に掲載されたものです。
１．トランプ現象
多国間協調主義を排し、自国第一主義を標榜するトランプ現象が世界各地に広がっている。 4年前、ドナルド・トランプ氏がアメリカ大統領に選出されたとき、「予想外」が大方の見方であった。それが今ではフィリピンのドゥテルテ大統領、ブラジルのボルソナロ大統領、ハンガリーのオルバン首相など世界各地にリトル・トランプが誕生した。かつて多文化主義を標榜し、移民の受入れに寛容であった欧米各国で、移民排斥、人種差別、少数民族の迫害が横行し、EU 離脱を掲げる極右政党が跋扈するようになる。
トランプ現象は一過性の現象に終わりそうにない。それどころか、今日の国際政治状況は1930年代のそれにあまりにも似ている。第一次世界大戦が終わり、国際連盟を中心に平和秩序が構築された1920年代は、国際協調主義が力を持ち、世界は国際平和の創造に向けて一体となっていた。ところが 1930年代に入るとファシズムのムッソリーニ、ナチズムのヒトラー、一国社会主義のスターリンなど、今で言う自国第一主義を唱えるビッグ・トランプが幾人も出現し、多くの国が 独裁体制へ移行し、そして世界は再び世界大戦に突入した。
2 ．平和に対する三つの挑戦
歴史家 E. H. カーが第二次世界大戦の最中に著した『平和の条件』（1942年）によると、19世紀に起源をもつ欧州国際 社会の思想的基盤であった三つのイデオロギー、すなわち自由民主主義、民族自決主義／ナショナリズム、およびレッセフェール（自由放任主義）が新たに台頭した革命的なイデオロギーの真っ向からの挑戦を受けた。自由民主主義はロシア革命で勢い付いたマルクス・レーニン主義、続いてファシズムとナチズムの挑戦を、民族自決主義／ナショナリズムは共 産主義インターナショナリズム、続いてナチ・ドイツの欧州 統合の企てによって挑戦を、そしてレッセフェールは世界恐 慌後のブロック経済や共産主義の計画経済によって挑戦を受けた。こうして起きた欧州の伝統的イデオロギーと新勢力の革命的イデオロギーの対立の最終的な局面が第二次世界大戦である。
3 ．大戦前夜の民族マイノリティ弾圧
国際協調主義の蹉跌は東中欧から始まった。多民族国家の東中欧諸国は、国民統合は進まず、政府の統治基盤が弱い国であった。東から共産主義イデオロギーが浸透するにつれ、 各国とも自由を抑圧し、少数民族を弾圧して独裁体制化していくとともに、民族紛争予防目的で設立された少数民族国際 保護体制から逸脱していった。資源に乏しい後発の「持たざる国」も、同様の軌跡をたどる。世界恐慌のあおりを受けて世界経済がブロック化し、レッセフェールが破綻したことで、領土・資源の多寡がパワーゲームの決定的な要素となった。日本は安価な資源と労働力を求めて植民地の開拓を行おうにも世界の領土はすでに欧州勢によって分割済みであった。国際協調主義に背を向け、国際連盟を脱退し、中国侵略 に活路を見出した。一方、過酷な賠償金の取り立てと世界恐慌のあおりを受けて600万人もの失業者を抱えて経済困窮に 苦しむドイツのナチス政権は、「生存圏」の拡大を口実に領土拡張政策に走った。
国際関係が緊張し、独裁体制が跋扈するようになると、国家体制安全保障観が力を持つようになる。国家体制を脅かすのは敵対イデオロギー勢力と手を結ぶ反政府勢力である。日独両国は急速に接近し、日独防共協定を結び、共通のイデオ ロギー脅威（コミンテルン）に共同で対処しようとしたのである。一方、少数民族は、民族同胞国の侵略の手引きをすることで国民的一体性と領土的一体性を脅かしかねない。統治基盤を強化するためには国威を発揚させ、民族主義を高揚させねばならない。その道具に「歴史問題」が掘り起こされ、 失地回復主義があおられ、領土紛争が誘発されていく一方 で、国内にあっては人種差別、移民排斥が横行し、少数民族の迫害が強化されていった。そして戦争前夜の1937年から38 年にかけて、例えば国際都市レニングラードで、国外に「歴史的祖国」を有するドイツ系、ポーランド系、フィンランド系、バルト系の「敵性民族」が国外へ追放され、さらには日 本との内通が恐れられた極東の朝鮮人17万人がカザフスタン へ強制移動させられた。戦争の暗雲が立ち込める中、少数民族の苦境は、まさに国際平和秩序における炭鉱のカナリヤの 悲痛な鳴き声に他ならない。
4 ．コロナ後の世界
今日、世界各地で領土紛争が頻発し、「歴史問題」が掘り起こされている。自然環境破壊と水をめぐる国際紛争が年々増加し、九州と四国を合わせた面積の砂漠化が進んでいる。 世界人口は毎年8,000万人増加するも、食糧増産の見込みは薄く、国際社会の貧富格差は増大の一途をたどっている。難民の受け入れが拒否され、権威主義国家が増殖し、人権と基本的自由が抑圧され、そして少数民族の抑圧が強まり、人種 差別が横行し始めている。コロナ後の世界で、世界経済の不況と失業問題を端に自国第一主義に一層の拍車がかかること になろう。国際協調主義の再生とグローバル市民社会の構築 の知恵と手立てを編み出すことが急がれる。
The Trump Phenomenon and a Canary in a Coal Mine
Gen Kikkawa (Professor)
*This article is from Hiroshima Research News #59.
The Trump phenomenon, which advocates a “me-first” policy for America and undermines efforts toward multilateralism, has been spreading throughout the world. Four years ago, when Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, it was considered by most people to be an “unexpected result.” However, the world has recently seen the emergence of many “little Trumps” around the world, including Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro, and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban. In many Western countries, which had once pledged to support multiculturalism and had shown tolerance in accepting immigrants, anti-immigrant movements, racial discrimination, and the persecution of minorities have been spreading, leading to the rise of far-right political parties that advocate withdrawal from the EU.
The Trump phenomenon is not likely to be a temporary phenomenon and end any time soon. Instead, the world political situation today is remarkably similar to that of the 1930s. In the 1920s, after the First World War, many countries in the world, under the initiative of the League of Nations, came to place a premium on the principle of international cooperation and were working together toward the creation of international peace. In the 1930s, however, a number of big Trumps appeared who adhered to “my country-first” policies—as represented by Benito Mussolini, the Italian political leader who created Fascism, Adolf Hitler, the German political leader who advocated Nazism, and Joseph Stalin, the Soviet political leader who put forth the theory of “socialism in a single country.” As a result, many countries moved toward dictatorship, and the world entered another world war.
In “Conditions of Peace” (1942), a work he wrote during the Second World War, the British historian E.H. Carr argued that the three ideologies of liberal democracy, self-determination of nations/nationalism, and laissez-faire, all of which date back to the 19th century and served as the ideological foundation of the international community in Europe, stood squarely against the newly emerging revolutionary ideologies, eventually leading to the start of another world war. Liberal democracy faced the challenge of Marxism-Leninism, which gained momentum through the Russian Revolution, and then the challenge of Fascism and Nazism. The self-determination of nations/nationalism was challenged by communism/ internationalism, which was followed by Nazi Germany’s attempt to unify Europe. Laissez-faire faced challenges from the Great Depression which led to the formation of exclusionary economic blocs, and the communist planned economy. In their final phase, such confrontations between Europe’s traditional ideologies and newly emerging revolutionary ideologies reached their climax at the Second World War. Failure of the principle of international cooperation began in eastern and central Europe, where there are many multiethnic nations. In those countries, little progress was being made in fostering the unity of the people, making their governance bases weaker. The spread of communist ideology from the eastern part of the European continent encouraged multiethnic nations to move toward dictatorship, diminishing freedom and increasing the oppression of ethnic minorities. They then withdrew from the international regime that had originally been established to protect ethnic minorities and prevent the rise of ethnic disputes. Latecomer “have-not” nations (or resource-poor countries) also followed the same fate.
The failure of laissez-faire due to the division of the world economy into blocs in the wake of the Great Depression made the size of territories and resources a crucial element of the international power game.
Although Japan wanted to embark on establishing colonies overseas in an attempt to ensure inexpensive resources and labor, territories around the world had already been divided up by the European powers. As a result, Japan turned its back on the principle of international cooperation, withdrew from the League of Nations, and found a new way to invade China. Meanwhile, the Nazi government in Germany—whose economy was in a dire situation, with 6 million people unemployed, due to severe pressure to pay war reparations and the impact of the World Depression—started to turn to a territorial expansion policy under the excuse of expanding its “living space.”
With growing tension in international relations and widespread authoritarianism, the issue of national security began to come to the fore, particularly in response to antigovernment forces that joined hands with forces with opposing ideologies to threaten the framework of nations. Japan and Germany moved vigorously to establish a closer relationship with each other and concluded the German Japanese Anti-Comintern Pact to work together to counter a common ideological threat (Comintern). Meanwhile, ethnic minorities, who it was thought may help those from the same ethnic background invade the nation, were regarded as a threat that could undermine the oneness of the people and territorial integrity. To strengthen the governing legitimacy, it was necessary to boost national prestige and enhance nationalism. As a means to do so, historical issues were unearthed and fueled, thereby leading to territorial conflicts.
Within nations, racial discrimination and immigration clampdowns became widespread, thereby accelerating the persecution of minorities. In 1937 and 1938, on the eve of the war, for example, those of German descent, Polish descent, Finnish descent, or Baltic descent living in the international city of Leningrad—who were all regarded as “hostile ethnic groups” because they had “historical homelands”—were forced into exile. Moreover, 170,000 Korean people living in the Far East were forced to move to Kazakhstan, for fear that they might hold secret communication with Japanese people. Under a cloud of war, ethnic minorities facing such a plight are nothing less than a canary in a coal mine crying out in a quest for global peace and order.
Today, territorial disputes often occur around the world, throwing a spotlight on historical issues. International conflicts are escalating over the destruction of the natural environment and water resources, and desertification is accelerating around the world. The annual loss due to desertification equals the combined area of Kyushu and Shikoku islands in Japan. Despite the increase in world population by 80 million per year, there is little hope for increasing the production of food, causing the gap between the rich and the poor to increasingly widen in the international community. The world today has seen the refusal to accept refugees, the proliferation of authoritarian states, suppression of human rights and fundamental freedoms, the oppression of minorities, and the spread of racial discrimination. In the post-COVID-19 era, a worldwide economic recession and rising unemployment will spur on individual countries’ “me-first” policies. There is an urgent need to exercise wisdom and come up with measures for the recovery of the principle of international cooperation and the building of a global civil society.